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On Dec. 21, 2022, just as peak holiday season travel was getting underway, Southwest Airlines went through a cascading series of failures in their scheduling, initially triggered by severe winter weather in the Denver area. But the problems spread through their network, and over the course of the next 10 days the crisis ended up stranding over 2 million passengers and causing losses of $750 million for the airline.
How did a localized weather system end up triggering such a widespread failure? Researchers at MIT have examined this widely reported failure as an example of cases where systems that work smoothly most of the time suddenly break down and cause a domino effect of failures. They have now developed a computational system for using the combination of sparse data about a rare failure event, in combination with much more extensive data on normal operations, to work backwards and try to pinpoint the root causes of the failure, and hopefully be able to find ways to adjust the systems to prevent such failures in the future.
The findings were presented at the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), which was held in Singapore from April 24-28 by MIT doctoral student Charles Dawson, professor of aeronautics and astronautics Chuchu Fan, and colleagues from Harvard University and the University of Michigan.